Economic Implications of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19): An Analytical Survey Study

Abstract

The study aims at surveying and analyzing a reasonable number of studies published in the aftermath of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19). The period covered from January 1st till April 10th, 2020, with a view to revealing the main methodological approaches used, by these studies and reports, to identify the economic implications and/or draw possible scenarios about the likelihood impacts of the pandemic on the global economy. The study identified four approaches: the one based on modeling, economic analysis and scenarios, the comparative approach, the approach based on surveys and polls, and finally the approach based on the results of other sciences; but this approach is very limited and rare. Obtained results show that the widely used approach, in the surveyed studies and reports, is the modeling and economic analysis one, followed by the comparative approach that tries to compare the effects of the past epidemics, and/or financial and economic turbulences with the effects of the ongoing pandemic. Studies agreed that the world economy will experience an economic downturn, but they differed on its form and extent. Some of the studies projected that the recession may take the (V) shape or (U). The current study expects that the (U) shape is the likely eventuality to take place subject to the lessening of the lockdown and social distancing measures by mid-year (i.e. June 2020), and the fact that the virus will not appear in a second or a third wave. If these two conditions are not met, the World economy may face a prolonged recession of the sort of (L) shape.